The 4G War: Will There be True Convergence?
In the past few weeks, we have seen a lot of activities in the WiMAX space. A lot of countries are signifying their intent on launching WiMAX networks [1][2][3][4][5][6]. A lot of these are even on track to launching WiMAX this year. Even the big manufacturers like Intel and Nokia are releasing WiMAX gear soon. This is the period of BIG WiMAX announcements.
However, there is also a growing amount of skepticism too. The biggest one to day is Ericsson deciding to snub WiMAX. Here is an article describing WiMAX as the next Iridium (AP source).
Don’t bet on it, says Zweig. “Just as did the Iridium community before it, the WiMAX community is failing to take into account how established technologies will evolve and improve over time.” Motorola’s Iridium venture “failed to take into account the competitive environment in which Iridium would be operating. By the time Iridium could launch, conventional cellular would have captured almost all of its [Iridium’s] potential market,” she explained.
“Iridium’s biggest competitor was GSM,” she continued. “GSM terrestrial coverage was expanding while the prices of services and devices were declining. In the case of Wi-MAX, its biggest competitors are mobile and landline broadband providers who are investing in faster networks and ever improving coverage.” Mobile handset and device prices, she added, are declining to below what WiMAX will be able to offer.”
However, WiMAX operators can actually prevent its unsightly demise by learning from Iridium’s mistakes. First of all, WiMAX providers should not price themselves out of the market. If the industry believes that WiMAX is a potential competitor to cellular data (WiFi, EV-DO, LTE, HSPDA, …) then it should come up with competitive pricing. Another thing WiMAX operators can do is open new markets. Iridium was trying to target a market that was already starting to be addressed by GSM. WiMAX should takes things a step further a look beyond its competitors. Right now, they are trying to do a same ole same ole me too offering.
So let us try to divide the world in to sides.
| Bet WiMAX | No to WiMAX | We will do it all |
| Intel | Ericsson | Nokia |
| Motorola | Alcatel-Lucent | |
| Nortel | Qualcomm | |
| Samsung | Huawei | |
| ZTE |
Looks like the world is drifting towards fence sitters. This is probably because they are convinced that their current technology directions are sound. However, they will play all cards to ensure that they do not miss out in a major break. Besides, LTE and WiMAX are so technologically similar that this looks more like a political game than a technology one.
